Johnson raises UK terror threat level to 'severe'

24 Jan 10

Home Secretary Alan Johnson has raised the threat level in the UK to ‘severe’, an announcement that means a terrorist attack is now “highly likely”. Brian Sims reports.

By Brian Sims

The Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) is the organisation directly responsible for keeping the threat level under constant review. It makes its judgements based on a broad range of factors, not least the intent and capabilities of international terrorist groups in the UK and overseas.

Severe is the fourth of five threat levels to the UK from international terrorism, with the UK threat level reduced to ‘substantial’ last July for the first time in four years after a significant judgement was made that there had been a “chilling” effect on terrorism in and around Britain.

Speaking on Sky News, the Home Secretary has been swift to play down any linkage between this latest announcement and the events that transpired in Detroit on Christmas Day, stressing that although the threat had indeed increased there was "no intelligence" to suggest an attack is actually imminent.

Very real and serious threat

“We still face a very real and serious threat to the UK from international terrorism,” said the Home Secretary, “so I would urge the public to remain vigilant and carry on reporting suspicious events to the appropriate authorities. I would also urge them to support the police and security services in their continuing efforts to discover, track and disrupt terrorist activity.”

Johnson made his statement in the wake of briefings to the Prime Minister by the heads of the security services – MI5, MI6 and GCHQ – in addition to a meeting of the Government’s Cobra Emergency Committee.

At present, MI5 is said to be watching around 2,000 individuals across Britain, but the activity levels among domestic extremists are not thought to have risen significantly in recent months.

More often than not, it appears, judgements about a given threat will be based on a wide range of “fragmentary” information. Elements considered include what is actually known about the capabilities of terrorists, the method(s) they may use and the potential scale of the attack, as well as the targets they would be considering.

Confession to the FBI

It’s alleged that Umar Farouq Abdulmutallab, the individual who attempted to ignite a bomb sewn into his underwear in the Christmas Day attack, warned his US interrogators from the FBI that up to 20 more “like me” may be preparing further attacks.

On the back of that, our own Government is now busily compiling an updated ‘Watch List’ in a concerted effort to stop terror suspects from boarding planes.

The Home Secretary continued: “In his statement to Parliament on security and counter- terrorism earlier this week, the Prime Minister said that the first and most important duty of Government is the protection and security of the British people. We have a very focused counter-terrorism facility in this country, and the public should be reassured by that fact.”

The JTAC/UK Government decision to amend the threat level has been made as foreign ministers are preparing to meet in London this coming week to discuss the threat of terrorism in both the Yemen and Afghanistan. Attendees at the high-level gathering will include Afghan premier Hamid Karzai, the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon and, of course, current US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Meeting of the National Security Committee

Gordon Brown’s delivery to the House of Commons followed a detailed briefing on the latest intelligence at a meeting of the Cabinet’s National Security Committee. He said the failed attack over Detroit on Christmas Day signalled “the first operation mounted outside Arabia by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.”

The beleaguered Labour leader also talked about the increased threat from Somalia in East Africa and also the Sahel in West Africa, suggesting that there would now be a far greater degree of intelligence sharing with foreign countries.

The Government has stated that MI5, MI6 and the GCHQ have begun to establish “joint investigating and targeting teams” specifically designed to address potential threats before suspects are allowed to reach Britain. Those teams are configured to work in tandem with the JTAC, their prime responsibility being to collect, share and use intelligence.

Readers' comments

Steve Goodwin 29 Jan 10
Brian's article clearly indicates that the world in general has seen a growth in potential threats from a host of organisations and countries, externally or internally. With the recent attempt to blow up another aircraft en route to the USA, the risk of an attack on these shores is deemed severe.

However, little information has permeated down of late about the increase in the potential threats from those organisations within Northern Ireland who remain in existence and have certain abilities that should not be underestimated.

Some recent attacks have been attributed to CIRA and RIRA members frustrated by the peace process, and there were indications that an attempt might be in the offing to transport a trailer bomb, prepared and built across the water, to commit a spectacular last seen in the days of the IRA in London, or another more vulnerable city.

All eyes appear to be focused on Islamic extremism yet, with disunity once again growing inside Stormont, and the attempts by some to discredit ministers and failure to agree again on policing in the Province, this is fuelling the dissidents' recruitment processes. They're even more keen to show they can still act.

With the Government desperate to cut budgets and claw back monies to deal with its shambolic fiscal situation, and recent news that security and defence budgets will as usual take a pounding, do not be surprised if an attack comes via the side door.

Is it any wonder that risk management is one of THE jobs to undertake in 2010? It's very unlikely that you're going to be bored within the next few years, even if we're just talking about considering where the next attack will come from, let alone predicting it (if that's at all possible).

After all, who would have considered that an individual would have a bomb within his underpants, or that another would try to assassinate a Government official by placing an explosive device inside his body?

The training camps throughout the world, set up and financed by individuals, organisations and even supported by countries, are providing a growing number of individuals hell bent on murder and mayhem. These people are whiling away the hours just thinking about ways of defeating the current range of security apparatus stacked against them.

These are dangerous times and, while the emphasis of Gordon Brown and his entourage is on the struggle in Afghanistan, draining our lifeblood and resources in a fight that Tony Blair is still trying to justify in terms of whether it was right or wrong, are we not ignoring a threat that's closer to home?

Although nearly forgotten, that threat is not yet extant, nor is it likely ever to be so.

The USA missed its chances to interdict 9/11. Are we going to stand by and miss another Canary Wharf or Arndale?

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Johnson raises UK terror threat level to 'severe'

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