SI Editor's View: Weathering the storm

25 Nov 08

Security Installer editor Alan Hyder looks at the impact on security of the economic downturn, and takes a gander at some futuristic gizmos...

Whoever's writing the script for this economic crisis must have been watching the soaps – just when we're starting to get used to the endless gloom, cue nasty winter weather and throw in Christmas for dramatic effect.

Yes, just when business is uncertain, employment is no longer a given and money is tighter than ever before, what better than to dig yourself into an even bigger financial hole?

But let's not dwell on that annual binge come guilt-fest because, according to research I've just been sent, there is every reason to be "cautious but optimistic" about the future of security surveillance growth in 09.

According to IMS (so hot off the press they haven't even got it up on their website yet) some regions and products can expect to see continued healthy growth next year.

The researchers say it is imperative to see that the global crisis is affecting different vertical CCTV markets and regions in different ways.

Video sales in retail and banking are hardest hit as consumer spending slows and financial institutions remain shaky.

But areas like public CCTV and transport surveillance are a much easier sell because they are seen as essential.

Wider view

Video manufacturers will be heartened to know that while western Europe, Japan and the US markets have slowed down, it's another story in eastern Europe, Russia, the Middle East and Latin America where there's a new thirst for CCTV with a rapid, combined growth of 20 per cent for the foreseeable future.

China is a CCTV "powerhouse" at the moment and there's a vast replacement market for DVRs and IR day/night cameras.

The Indian market is also, appropriately, "hot at the moment" say the researchers. And here's more proof of it.

Say the researchers: "If vendors are savvy enough to fair some bad weather and expand into developing regions, then 2010 onwards promises a return to higher growth".

Closer to home

But what's all this global thinking got to do with your average UK CCTV installer who's not only facing a huge increase in costs and slower paying customers but demands for a new PS3 with games bundle and suchlike from the kids?

We might be in a credit crunch but cutting back Christmas spending on them is the last resort.

The chancellor tried to play the part of the Fairy Godmother yesterday, sprinkling fairy dust in the form of tax deferrals and VAT cuts to stimulate the economy.

Personally, I can’t see how this headline-grabbing VAT cut is going to stimulate consumers to spend spend spend this Christmas.

On top of massive price hikes in every sphere of life this year, coupled with below-inflation or no pay rises, a piddling 2.5 per cent off VAT is unlikely to bring much sparkle to the High Street.

However, for small businesses – the majority of installers – the news was more encouraging.

Although, by rights, it should have been scrapped, the planned increase in corporation tax from 21 to 22 per cent for firms with up to £300,000 profits pa, has been deferred.

And businesses will be allowed to defer paying their tax bills – at last someone realises it’s better to get tax late than not get it at all after the company goes bust.

‘Value added’ surveillance

In these tough times, the message that's been coming over strongly is that CCTV installers need to broaden their thinking as to what the cameras are for.

At our Next Generation CCTV conference a couple of weeks ago the message came across from a number of speakers that cameras must now justify their existence financially.

CCTV is a much easier sell when it can demonstrate it provides extra value – even down to convenience store level.

Cameras can bring potentially valuable footfall, parking, customer habit, consumer choice, staff and training information at little expense – and not forgetting security, of course.

Analysing happiness

At Security Installer, we hear a lot about these futuristic applications. Some of it borders on the weird – such as "analysing the drinking habits of elderly nursing home residents" using RFID and GPS and a face reading device which analyses when people are happy, sad or angry.

RFID technology is a revolution in itself – especially in retail.

In Finland there are "intelligent changing rooms" in clothes stores. No more trying on something and having to get dressed again to go out and find something different. Just use a touch-screen to get RFID tagged clothes brought to the changing room.

In Japan a prototype robot that uses face recognition to determine a customer's age could replace the human shop assistant.

And there was some concern expressed when a company started testing school uniforms fitted with RFID tags to keep tabs on a group of students.

Hello pet

Some believe this kind of thing is more suitable for pets than children and using RFID to locate tagged dogs is now becoming commonplace in well-heeled pooch owner circles.

But taking the dog biscuit for the most bizarre use of RFID must be this idea to give your beloved pet a "SNIF" tag "incorporating an accelerometer and motion analysis software" to not only track the mutt but determine how active he's been "while you're stuck in the office". Eh?

We’re told these tags also "record encounters with other tag-wearing dogs in the background while standard canine meet-and-greet sniffing is taking place".

A database "enables you to compare your dog's activities with other dogs of the same breed."

Doctor, take me away.

Incriminating voices

What with their intelligent changing rooms and suchlike, Finland seems to be setting trends with some of their security concepts. I understand the fake police car idea I wrote about a few weeks back was used there.

Now I hear that the Finnish police have set up a register of voice samples of hard core criminals to add to their existing fingerprint, DNA and shoe print registers.

Software will match a suspect to the hard core criminals on the database. It's "not 100 per cent accurate" though, they admit.

Surely typical criminal-type phrases such as "Stand back Clara, I'll take a pop at him" (courtesy Enid Blyton) wouldn't create the same vocal pattern after the Secret Seven had taken him down to the station?

Get a second life

If all the gloom seems too much to take why not retreat into a virtual world this Christmas? Suddenly everyone's talking about these sites. We're hearing about how addictive a second life can be, especially if you haven’t go much of a first one. It can even spill over into the real world.

Doesn't matter what you’re like in real life, you could be a fantastic success as a muscle rippling avatar installation god.

Some people have made a lot of money selling sex in the virtual world. Could you do the same selling security?