Winners and losers predicted in security market

15 Jul 09

However an increase in demand for CCTV and access control is expected to result in overall growth of 5 per cent in real terms in the security equipment market up until 2013.

This will bring the value of the overall market to £3056 million in 2013 compared with £2908 last year.

Demand for security equipment in the UK – including sales and rental income - represented a growth of 1 per cent in 2008, according to the latest report from MBD.

Overall demand is believed to have increased by a cumulative 6 per cent in real terms during the review period 2004-2008.

But, because of the “uncertain economic climate and the downturn in the construction market”, the overall security equipment market is expected to decline by 2 per cent in real terms this year.

However, this is predicted to be followed by growth in the following four years, says the report that looks at the whole equipment market – including CCTV, access control and intruder alarms.

Development had been relatively strong in the rental sales and incomes market “reflecting the popularity of rental systems”, says the report.

Says the “UK Security Equipment Market Development Report”:

“A stronger market development is likely to be restricted by the relative maturity of a number of sectors in the security systems and alarms market.

“However, some sectors of the market are expected to continue to show growth potential boosted by technological developments, notably the CCTV, access control and integrated systems sectors”

Here are the market sector breakdowns according to MBD:

Intruder alarms

The value of the intruder alarms sector is “to decline by 19 per cent in real terms between 2008 and 2013.

“The value of the intruder alarms sector is anticipated to fall throughout the five year forecast period, with the strongest annual decline of 7 per cent anticipated for 2009.

In the period 2010 to 2013, annual growth levels are anticipated to fluctuate between a more moderate 2 per cent and 3 per cent in real terms. The stronger decline projected for 2009 is largely a reflection of the current economic climate and the continued downturn in the house building market.

“Due to the maturity of the sector, demand is not expected to return to growth in the medium-term. The sector is also expected to face continued competition from other areas of the security equipment sector, such as central alarms, CCTV and integrated systems.

CCTV

“The value of the CCTV sector is also expected to decline in 2009, albeit at a marginal level. This is largely a result of the current economic conditions, with demand from the retail, private commercial, and financial sectors particularly negatively affected.

“MBD anticipate the sector to increase between 2010 and 2013, with annual growth levels anticipated to fluctuate between 2 per cent and 4 per cent in real terms.

“Overall, the value of the CCTV sector is anticipated to increase by 11 per cent between 2008 and 2013. Sales growth is expected to continue to be driven by the switch to

digital and IP enabled systems.

“Moreover, demand is projected to be boosted by improved security in public transport networks, along with further growth opportunities provided by the 2012 London Olympics.

Access control

The share of access control systems is to rise to 25 per cent by 2013.

“Demand for access control is also projected to increase during much of the five year forecast period, except for a 1 per cent decline in 2009.

“In 2013, the value of the sector is forecast to reach £757 million (at 2008 prices), equivalent to growth of 12 per cent compared with 2008.

“Furthermore, the importance of the sector to the total security alarms and systems market is expected to increase moderately from 23 per cent to 25 per cent during the forecast period.

“Anticipated growth in the sector reflects the development of new technologies, higher value installations along with the renewed focus on security. IP technology is also expected to start playing a more important role in the access control market.”

• The UK Security Equipment Market Development Report is available from MBD, priced £600

• Details: www.mbdltd.co.uk

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